French parliamentary elections begin
The main struggle will unfold between the pro-presidential centrists and the left bloc, led by Mélenchon, who took third place in the presidential election. Le Pen's party may improve positions, but will not become a leading force =”Parliamentary elections have started in France” />
Voting at the polling stations began on the morning of June 12, and the final results of the elections will be known only after June 19, when the second round will take place. The fact is that 577 deputies of the lower house of parliament are elected in majoritarian districts (a total of 6293 candidates are registered).
The main struggle unfolds between three electoral blocs: the centrist, formed around the presidential Renaissance party, the left, whose main force was Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Insubordinate party, and the right, formed with the participation of the Republicans party. Marine Le Pen's National Rally Party participates in elections without partners. According to Ifop's pre-election poll, Macron's camp could win between 250 and 290 seats, with 289 needed to win a majority. However, according to Politico's forecast, the centrists could win up to 310 seats. The bloc led by Mélenchon can expect to occupy from 190 to 235 seats, right— from 42 to 62, and the party of Le Pen— from 25 to 28.
To win in the first round, a candidate must receive an absolute majority and at least 25% of the votes of registered voters. If none of the candidates has achieved this, a second round is held, in which politicians who have gained at least 12.5% take part. The winner is the one with the most votes.
Term of deputy powers— five years. Monthly salary— €7.2 thousand per month, deputies can make an unlimited number of trips by rail free of charge, as well as up to 80 flights per year between the capital and the constituency. Parliamentarians are also reimbursed for hotel expenses and are given the opportunity to live in one of the parliament buildings during their term of office.
What are the chances for the presidential party
In the last elections in 2017, Macron's center party Forward, Republic! (La République en marche/LREM) received the absolute majority of seats— 308, and in association with the party “Democratic Movement” (Mouvement démocrate) centrist bloc consisted of 350 deputies. However, the presidential majority turned out to be unstable, and by the end of the term, 267 deputies remained in the LREM faction.
The presidential party is going to these elections as part of the “Together!” coalition. The name of the party itself has also changed, now it is called “Renaissance”. The new name refers to the Renaissance and encourages voters to “always choose enlightenment over obscurantism,” party general secretary Stanislas Guerini explained at a press conference in Paris. The election campaign is led by Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne. She was appointed to the post of head of government on May 16, after Macron was re-elected for a second term. The coalition also includes the “Democratic Movement”; François Bayrou and the new party “Horizons” under the leadership of a former prime minister and a member of the right-wing Republican Party; Edouard Philippe.
Now, unlike in the past elections, Macron's party can no longer play on the novelty of the newly created team, so it relies on policy promises. The most important area of work in case of victory is declared to be overcoming the crisis caused by the rising cost of living. The emphasis is on working with the president and delivering on his campaign promises: Macron promised a series of tax, welfare and environmental reforms over the next five years.
Read on RBC Pro Pro x The Economist Why the tightening of the policy of the European Central Bank threatens the Italian economy Netflix Articles Pro Let's Break Through: Three Keys to Success in Strategic Planning Articles Pro Being a vegan is healthy. Is it true?In the last election, Mélenchon's party won only 17 seats, and the socialist party— 30. But over the past five years, the left has strengthened its position, in April the far-left Mélenchon won 22% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, and now the left has almost as much chance of winning as the centrists. To the left-wing coalition of the “New Ecological and Social People's Union” (Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale, NUPES) are included in addition to “Unsubdued France” Melenchon The Socialist Party and the Communist Party of the Republic, as well as the party “Europe” Ecology— The Greens» (Europe Écologie Les Verts/EELV). If the left bloc wins the majority of seats in parliament, Mélenchon will run for prime minister. However, this can be prevented not only by the positions of the centrists and Macron, but also by disagreements within the leftmost coalition: Mélenchon opposes the European Union, and the Socialist Party takes a pro-European position. Because of these contradictions, the parties have already had difficulty creating an alliance.
The polls promise a major defeat for the right-wing bloc led by the Republicans, which also includes the Union of Democrats and Independents. and “Centrists”. Their coalition fielded candidates in virtually every constituency, but polls show they can win no more than 52 seats. It can hardly count on more and the “National Association” Marine Le Pen, although the politician herself received 41.5% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election in May. In April, she called the result a resounding victory and set her sights on serious competition during legislative elections. Le Pen called on her supporters to elect a parliament that would be a counterbalance to Macron's power: “The role of a strong, effective, committed opposition is to prevent the president of the republic from doing what he wants, because what he wants will greatly hurt the French". According to experts, although the ultranationalists will improve their position in parliament (in the elections five years ago, the “National Association” got only eight deputies into parliament), they are unlikely to get more than 37 seats.
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